The streak doesn't break.

The UK Met Office, Environment and Climate Change Canada, and Carbon Brief have all published 2026 temperature outlooks in the last month. All three converge: 2026 will likely rank in the top four warmest years on record. Central estimate: 1.44°C above pre-industrial (1850-1900). Range: 1.35-1.53°C.

For context: 2024 remains the warmest year ever observed. 2023 and 2025 are second and third. The first three months of 2026 have been the fourth-warmest on record, with each month exceeding its historical average by a wider margin than the one before.

A "super" El Niño is forecast to develop by autumn, which will probably add a small further nudge.

§ 01 The detail that matters

There is no individual data point in any of these reports that surprises anyone who reads the literature. The pattern is what's surprising: every year is now a contender. The conversation about whether we cross 1.5°C is over; the conversation about how often we are above it has begun.

If you build for the long term — physical infrastructure, energy systems, agriculture, real estate — you can no longer plan against the climate of your childhood. That is the year-2026 baseline.